Tuesday, April 04, 2006

A-Bomb-Bomb-Bomb, Bomb-Bomb-Iran

Seems the U.S. and Britain are getting more serious about bombing Iran's nascent nuke program. Per the link:

It is believed that an American-led attack, designed to destroy Iran's ability to develop a nuclear bomb, is "inevitable" if Teheran's leaders fail to comply with United Nations demands to freeze their uranium enrichment programme.

....A senior Foreign Office source said...."If Iran makes another strategic mistake, such as ignoring demands by the UN or future resolutions, then the thinking among the chiefs is that military action could be taken to bring an end to the crisis. The belief in some areas of Whitehall is that an attack is now all but inevitable."

How stupid is attacking Iran? Extremely stupid.

If we attack Iran, we will almost certainly lose the tacit cooperation of Shi'ite Iraq.

Right now we can't even handle the Sunni insurgency. If we lose the Shi'ites, it's game over in Iraq. As in helicopters lifting the last Americans out of the Green Zone just ahead of the insurgents' moving in.

Our 'enduring bases' ought to hold out a little longer, but mostly because they're away from population centers and have runways for C-130 cargo planes.

But all in all, bombing Iran is pretty damned stupid. And that's if the Iranians themselves do absolutely zilch to retaliate.

And they can do a great deal in the way of retaliation. For starters, they can cease oil exports for a few months, watch the price of oil double to $130/barrel, and make out like gangbusters when they resume oil half their previous output. For seconds, they could send a good chunk of their army into eastern Iraq, on the pretext of restoring order to Shi'ite Iraq - and our scattered, overburdened military would have a much harder time responding than you'd think. For thirds, they just might be able to instigate some terrorist attacks.

When you add it all up, bombing Iran right now would be incalculably stupid; it would be stupid raised to the power of the cardinality of the continuum.

Sometime in the future, I'd like to live in a country that's run by people who have a clue or two to rub together.


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